The Method
The question behind the number.
Evident Method begins with a fundraising commitment already made. It asks whether the portfolio supports that commitment by its deadline, under the limits that apply, and what could close the gap if it does not.
Start with what was promised.
An amount still to raise. A date it is due. A portfolio, and the limits the team works within.
That is where every answer starts.
A projection and this answer do different work.
A projection estimates what a portfolio may produce. It rests on the judgments every good team makes about its gifts.
Evident Method draws on those judgments too. It asks something more exact of them: whether this portfolio supports this commitment, by this date, under the limits that apply.
So the two can disagree. In the fictional campaign, they did. A projection remains useful. This answers a question a projection alone does not.
Campaign counsel and experienced development leaders often reach this answer by judgment. Evident Method makes it explicit, so others can examine it.
Timing is part of the answer.
When the answer is not yet, the changes matter, and so do their dates. Each change has a last date it can still help. After that, it may still be worth doing. It no longer helps this commitment.
When the answer is no, it names what was considered. A no has a scope.
Unknowns are not filled in.
When a missing fact could change the answer, the answer should say so.
Designed, not yet built
What it does not do.
It does not set the goal. It starts once a commitment exists.
It does not predict what any donor will do.
It does not replace the campaign's tracking or the people who advise it.
It does not turn a supportable amount into a guaranteed gift.
People supply the facts, challenge the assumptions and decide.
How it should be tested.
The honest test is a commitment that has already played out.
Fix a date in the past. Use only what was known on that date. Set the answer beside the judgment the team made at the time and what happened after. Look closely at where they differ, without treating hindsight as something the team could have known.
What happened afterward is evidence, not a verdict. It cannot show what a change no one made would have produced.
Where the work stands
Shown on synthetic data, on one fictional campaign. Not yet tested on a real portfolio.
How the answer is reached is something I walk through in conversation, using the fictional campaign or a past commitment of yours.